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Malgré leurs performances, le FMI veut maintenir la Côte d’Ivoire et le Kenya dans ses guichets de financement concessionnels

Malgré leurs performances, le FMI veut maintenir la Côte d’Ivoire et le Kenya dans ses guichets de financement concessionnels

Le conseil d’administration du Fonds Monétaire International a publié les résultats de ses travaux de révision des critères d’éligibilité à son fonds fiduciaire pour la réduction de la pauvreté et la croissance. Ce dernier est un mécanisme mis en place en 2010, pour permettre à l’institution, de mieux adapter ses interventions, en faveur des pays à faibles revenus, ou aux structures économiques faisant face à des chocs.

La revue des processus d’accès à ses fonds inclut de réexaminer les critères d’éligibilité pour bénéficier de ses ressources, mais aussi de revoir les critères permettant d’indiquer qu’un pays a positivement achevé les programmes qui y sont associés, et peut désormais par exemple solliciter l’accès aux ressources générales du FMI. Ces dernières sont plus contraignantes en termes de conditionnalités mais plus généreuses en mobilisation de ressources. Dans le cadre de cette réflexion, les analystes du FMI ont estimé que le Kenya et la Côte d’Ivoire, deux économies en pleine croissance économique en Afrique subsaharienne, ne pouvaient pas encore passer à une étape de sollicitation des ressources qui soit supérieure aux mécanismes du fonds fiduciaire pour la réduction de la pauvreté et la croissance.

La Côte d’Ivoire reste vulnérable

Dans le cas de la Côte d’Ivoire, l’institution relève que, malgré la forte croissance qui a suivi les 10 années de tensions socio-politiques « achevées » en 2011, le pays reste vulnérable. Entre fin 2016 et début 2017, il a fait face à une baisse des prix mondiaux du cacao, sa principale source de revenus en devises. Par ailleurs, la période a continué d’être marquée par des grèves dans différents corps de l’administration, surtout l’armée.

L’analyse relève aussi que la Côte d’Ivoire demeure un pays où on retrouve beaucoup de personnes pauvres, davantage en raison des conditions macroéconomiques passées.

Depuis son éligibilité aux programmes de financement concessionnels du fonds, le pays a amélioré globalement de 20% son Revenu National Brut par habitant. Mais cette performance fait suite au recul de 25% des périodes 1988-1994 et 1997-2002.

Le Kenya en dessous du critère d’éligibilité

Le Kenya présente un profil similaire à celui de la Côte d’Ivoire. La première puissance économique de l’Afrique de l’est est l’une des destinations privilégiées pour les investisseurs étrangers ciblant l’Afrique. Depuis le premier trimestre 2013, près de 280 opérations de fusions, acquisitions ou augmentation de capital, ont été annoncées dans ce pays, dont 21 au cours du seul premier trimestre 2017. En outre, depuis 2015, au moins 10 multinationales de divers secteurs (automobile, aviation, technologie, finance) s’y installent ou se préparent à s’y installer.

Mais les analystes du FMI indiquent cependant que le pays ne peut prétendre aux guichets supérieurs de son fonds pour les pays pauvres, parce que sur la base du Revenu National Brut par habitant, le Kenya est de 43%, en dessous du critère d’éligibilité. Par ailleurs, ils font remarquer, que le pays n’est pas à l’abri des chocs. Au plan interne une répétition de la difficile sécheresse de 2016 pourrait porter un coup aux revenus agricoles. Sur le plan financier, la croissance économique serait menacée par le contre effet de la limitation des taux bancaires qui s’est traduite par une baisse du soutien des banques à l’investissement privé national.

Plusieurs autres pays africains ont été cités dans le cadre de cette évaluation, notamment le Cameroun, la République du Congo, la Zambie et le Ghana. De plus en plus, le Caucus africain (qui regroupe les ministres des finances des pays de la région, gouverneurs au sein du FMI), estime que le FMI doit permettre à ses pays membres d’accéder aux ressources générales du fonds qui, malgré ses conditionnalités, offrent plus de ressources à même de permettre un vrai décollage des pays africains.

Parlant au nom de plusieurs pays de la région lors des rencontre d’automne du mois d’Avril 2017 à Washington, le ministre camerounais des finances Alamine Ousmane Mey, s’est lui aussi fait le porte-parole de ce plaidoyer, donnant échos à l’action de son collègue du Benin lors du Caucus africain de Cotonou en août 2016.

Au sein du FMI, on reste assez prudent avec cette demande, car l’Afrique subsaharienne n’apporte pas toujours de garantie, en terme de solidité des institutions et de gouvernance économique optimale. De l’autre côté, les conditionnalités des ressources générales du fonds, exigent parfois des ajustements structurels, très décriés par une part importante des opinions publiques africaines.

Source: http://www.agenceecofin.com

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